Patriots Football

Jackie Wagerweb asked:


The quarterback position has always been the most important position for any NFL team. Having a confident field general is essential for any team that wants to go deep into the playoffs. Nowhere is that more evident than in the AFC East.

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have dominated the division since Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe three games into the 2001 season. Now the Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills are all trying to find that diamond in the rough like the Patriots did when they selected Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 draft.

Daunte the Dolphin

Miami is coming off a 9-7 season and has some quality skill position players. The Dolphins’ biggest problem the last few seasons has been at quarterback. Miami has had immortals such as A.J. Feely, Jay Fielder, Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels taking snaps in the last three seasons.

Now the Dolphins think they’ve solved their problem. The Dolphins traded for former Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper and former Detroit signal caller Joey Harrington this off-season to sure up their weakness. The problem is, both QBs are huge question marks. Chances are, Miami will be searching for answers at the QB position again this season.
Culpepper will be the starter if he’s healthy. The 6′4”, 260 lb veteran was in the midst of his worst season as a pro when he suffered a catastrophic knee injury during the seventh game of the 2005 season. He had thrown just 6 touchdowns and 12 interceptions at the time of his injury. The season before, however, Culpepper was an All-Pro as he tossed 39 TDs and just 11 INTs while posting an impressive 110.9 quarterback rating. He would have been league MVP had it not been for Peyton Manning’s record-breaking season.

Back-up Plan

Culpepper is optimistic that he’ll be done with rehab and ready for the start of the season, but that’s wishful thinking. Miami will probably open the season with Harrington at the helm and that could leave the Fins in a big hole right off the bat.

The former University of Oregon star has never fulfilled the promise of being the No. 3 overall pick in the 2002 NFL draft. Despite having talented wide receivers and running backs around him, Harrington floundered in his 4 years with the Lions, throwing two more interceptions than touchdowns while leading the Lions to just 18 victories in 51 starts. 

The Dolphins have another intriguing option in their camp: Marcus Vick, the troubled younger brother of Atlanta QM Michael Vick. The odds are better that Vick will be in police custody rather than a Dolphins uniform come September, but if Nick Saban and the coaching staff can find a way to keep Vick on the field, he could offer Miami some insurance in case Culpepper and Harrington falter. Vick will most likely be made into a wide receiver anyway, but he could end up being used in several roles similar to the original slash, Kordell Stewart.

Still Searching

The Jets and Bills continue to look for answers at the QB spot as well. New York’s QB job is up for grabs as incumbent Chad Pennington missed most of last year after undergoing rotator cuff surgery. Pennington has a history of injuries and may never be the same after his latest setback. The Jets also acquired veteran Patrick Ramsey in a trade with the Washington Redskins in March. Ramsey has been a disappointment in Washington where he lost his job to Mark Brunell last season.

New York’s best hope may be rookie Kellen Clemens. Clemens was having a stellar senior season at Oregon before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He has good size, speed and quickness, and could be the quarterback of the future that the Jets have been looking for.

Buffalo, on the other hand, has done nothing to upgrade its weakness at quarterback. The Bills had a terrible draft and will go into the season with Kelly Holcomb and J.P. Losman vying for the starting job again. Neither are a very attractive option and the Bills look to be going nowhere again.

The Standard

In order for Miami, New York or Buffalo to make the playoffs, they will have to go through New England. The Patriots look to be even better than last season, having drafted running back Laurence Maroney and wide receiver Chad Jackson to add to Brady’s arsenal of weapons.

The Patriots are still the kings of the AFC East and are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl again. Should the Patriots regain the championship, it would be their fourth Super Bowl in six years and will cement their place as one of the greatest dynasties in the history of the league.



RANDOLPH

Bettorsworld.com asked:


FOOTBALL BETTING BASICS

Welcome to the first in a series of articles that will examine some of the finer points in sports betting for newcomers to the idea of trying to get the edge on the bookie. Many of the ideas will be applicable to other sports, but we’ll be focusing on football. Much of this stuff will be old-hat to old-timers but I hope many people will get at least a few ideas from the articles.

***This series of article was written for Bettorsworld by long time contributor “Shawn”.

—————

This Week: Q & A ABOUT “THE LINE”

1. “What the Line means - and what it doesn’t.”

Suppose you have a local bookie who lets you bet the line printed in your local newspaper’s sports section. On the Wednesday before the NFL season kicks off you open the paper and under “NFL Lines” you see:
(Favorites listed first, home team in CAPS)

JETS 6.5 Patriots

OK so what does this mean? This means you can call your bookie and bet $11 on the Jets. If the Jets win by 7 points or more you get the $11 back plus $10 more. If the Jets win by 6 or less, or the Patriots win, you lose the $11. Or, if you like the Patriots, you can bet $11 on them. If they win, or lose by six or less, you cash in, getting your $11 back plus $10 more. If the Jets win by 7 or more, your money on the Patriots is gone. Of course you can bet more than $11 to win $10. You can bet $55 to win $50, $110 to win $100, or more. Generally you risk $11 for every $10 you want to profit…that’s the standard and it varies little.

A line is also called a “point spread” or “spread”.

So what does it REALLY mean? The number 6.5 is the head start in points the line-maker gives the Patriots. He thinks, and your bookie is very much hoping, that if that’s the head start given the Patriots for wagering purposes, half of the bookie’s clients’ dough will be bet on the Jets and the other half on the Patriots.

Why is this important? The smart bookie doesn’t want to gamble-he wants a sure thing: a guaranteed profit from his customers. Consider the simplest case where a bookie has just two bettors, you and me, and this number of 6.5 does its job. You bet $11 on the Jets and I bet $11 on the Patriots. One of us wins. Let’s say it’s me…I **** the Jets. I get my $11 back, plus $10 of your money. The extra $1 you put in stays in the bookmaker’s pocket as his small, guaranteed profit (it’s called “vig” or “juice”).

What does the Line NOT mean? It does not mean, under any circumstances, that oddsmakers think the Jets will win by about 6 or 7 points. It’s your job to predict who will win and by how much…the line-maker doesn’t want to do your job for you. He works for the bookies. He and the bookies don’t care who wins or loses or by how much-they just want the same amount of cash on each side so the bookies can get juice. The line-maker tries to come up with the handicap of points that will put half the public’s money on the Jets, and half on the Patriots. As long as the money is split evenly, the bookie “wins” in his own way, and the result of the game is of no importance to him.

2. “Whoa. The Line is different today from yesterday. What’s with that?”

So the next day in the paper, it’s now

Jets 7 Patriots

instead. Now if you like the Jets they’ve got to win by 8 or more for you to cash in. If you like the Patriots, they can win or lose by 6 or less and you’ll win. (If the game lands on a Jet win by exactly 7, anybody who bet while the line was 7 just has their money refunded…you get the line at the time you bet, even if it changes later.)

The Line moved because the line-maker consulted with some big sports books and the money wasn’t balanced when the number was 6.5-there was more coming in on the Jets than the Patriots. So the line-maker and bookies changed the number to try to encourage more bets on the Patriots to even things up and get that juice.

(Line movement is complicated and these are only the basics. Detailing line movements and other things a bookie can do to “even up” the betting would take pages. One thing that the bookie could do instead of moving the line is to say “It’s still 6.5 but Jets bettors have to lay $11.50 to win $10 and Patriots backers can lay only $10.50 to win $10.” This is called “moving the money instead of the line”. Think about this one. It’s especially common when the line is exactly 3 points, a football winning margin that actually occurs a lot.)

3. “Why do different places have different Lines on the same game?”

Suppose you have access to several bookies (this is a good idea and we’ll talk about it in a later article) and you find they have different lines, like:

Bookie A: Jets by 6.5 (from the Newspaper)

Bookie B: Jets by 6

Bookie C: Jets by 7

Canbet: Jets by 6.5

Victor Chandler: Jets by 7

Bowmans: Jets by 6.5

Everybody but the bookie who blindly follows the paper is trying to balance the Jets bets with the Patriots bets. Maybe Bookie B is in Boston so he is a little lopsided on people betting for the Patriots — so he’s trying to entice Jets bettors to step up. Maybe Bookie C is in the Bronx (so he has too much money on the Jets at 6.5), and maybe Victor Chandler’s clients bet favorite teams a lot instead of underdog teams, so they’re looking for more money on the Patriots right now.

In the above example if you like the Jets you’ll take your business to Bookie B because if the Jets win by exactly 7 you’re a winner, and if the Jets win by exactly 6, it’s the only shop at which you don’t lose. If you like the Patriots, in this example Bookie C or Victor Chandler are the places to play because the Patriots get more points as a head-start there. More on line-shopping in a few weeks.

http://www.bettorsworld.com



CARLO

Johnny Detroit asked:


Reading and Understanding Money Lines
After learning about betting point spreads, Emily wanted to find out how to gamble on her favorite sport: Tennis. There are no point spreads in tennis and other individual sports like boxing and NASCAR because there is no meaningful way to measure how much a player wins or loses by. In these sports all that really matters is who wins and loses, and that’s where money line wagering comes into play.

What Is the Money Line?

Like the point spread, the money line is used to equal out the attractiveness of the favorite and the underdog for the typical bettor.

Money line results are decided by an event’s straight-up winner, without regard to any point spread, since there is no point spread. Oddsmakers set the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite (the expected winner) and less money on the underdog in an effort to balance the willingness of bettors to back the respective sides of a contest.

For example, Emily’s favorite tennis player Serena Williams wins a majority of her matches. The money line between Serena and her opponent, let’s say the 102nd-ranked player in the world, would not be even for this very reason. Sportsbooks would make bettors wager significantly more money on Serena than her opponent because of the disproportionate likelihood of Serena winning the match.

How to Read the Money Line

In the case of Serena Williams versus an overmatched opponent, a reasonable money line would require Serena bettors to risk $400 to win $100; while a $100 bet on her opponent would win $360.

Here’s how the money line would be listed: Serena Williams -400 / #102 Ranked Opponent +360

Every $400 bet on Serena nets a $100 profit if she wins (plus the return of the $400 risked). If her opponent pulls off the upset, $100 bet on the underdog would profit $360 (plus the return of the $100 risked).

Keep in mind that sportsbooks only make a commission (also known as juice or vigorish) when the favorite loses. So if Serena were to lose that match, the book pays off $360 to underdog bettors while collecting $400 from favorite bettors, for a $40 profit.

If Serena wins as expected, favorite bettors collect $100 while dog bettors lose $100 - resulting in zero profit for the bookmaker. The bigger the favorite, the less likely the underdog will win (and the less likely the book will collect their commission). To compensate for making a profit less often, the offshore sportsbook increases the spread between the favorite’s lay price and the underdog’s payoff, making their commission bigger when the longshot underdog does win.

When the Bulls were rolling with Michael Jordan it wouldn’t be unusual for a NBA 1st round playoff series to be priced: Bulls -1400 / Overmatched Opponent +900. In such cases the books would collect their commission only the rare times that the underdog won; but when they did that commission would be quite large.

When Is the Money Line Used?

Besides sports like NASCAR and golf, where the margin of victory doesn’t really matter, the money line is also the standard way to bet MLB. If a point spread were used with baseball, the smallest amount a line could be moved would be a ½ run, which would be much more significant than a ½-point move in basketball or football. Using a point spread in baseball would not allow an evening of the action with the necessary precision, so a money line is used.

Money lines are offered on football and basketball too, both college and pro. The money line is another option in those sports for bettors who choose to focus upon picking winners without regard for the point spread. If Emily would have known about money lines sooner, she might have placed a money line bet on her favorite NFL team - the New England Patriots - to win Super Bowl XXXIX.

The Patriots were 7 ½-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles, but -265 to win the game on the money line. Emily could have wagered $265 to win $100 on the Patriots. The Pats won 24-21, failing to cover the spread, but winning on the money line. Now Emily knows there’s choices other than point spread betting, and she’ll be ready for next season. Hopefully, so will you.

Pregame.com provides sports betting rules, basics, advice, systems, and strategy, online for free, covering NFL Football, NCAA college basketball, NBA, pro MLB baseball wagering from gambling experts.



RICK

Johnny Detroit asked:


Reading and Understanding Point Spreads

Emily loves sports - college football, NFL, and NBA. She knows a lot of people have a blast betting sports and wants to join the fun. But Emily is unsure of how to get started with sports gambling. In the newspapers and on the Internet she always sees “point spreads” (sometimes called “lines”) on the games but isn’t exactly sure what the numbers mean.

Understanding point spreads is a key first step to learning about sports betting. Emily’s not alone in needing the basics of point spreads explained, so let’s all learn how to read point spreads together. Then we’ll be on our way to enjoying the fun of sports betting.

What Is the Point Spread?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched - meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team - so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England . But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read the Point Spread

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

Philly wins the actual game by any amount of points

OR

Philly loses the game by less than 7 points.

There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.

The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:

Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots

Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.

For Those Who Like to Consider Things Mathematically

Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:

Subtracting the point spread from the favorite’s score (thus the minus sign before the number) and then compare to the underdog’s score

OR

Adding the point spread to the underdog’s score (thus the plus sign before the number) and then compare to the favorite’s score

Who Really “Won” the Super Bowl?

Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21

The favorite, New England , won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.

Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.

Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).

Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet - giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.

And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.

Pregame.com provides sports betting rules, basics, advice, systems, and strategy, online for free, covering NFL Football, NCAA college basketball, NBA, pro MLB baseball wagering from gambling experts.



LON

Wagerweb asked:


Ricky Williams seems to be a living enigma, of sorts. With an exorbitant amount of football talent, Williams brought great hope to the Dolphins’ lackluster running game in the 2002 season. With the exception of his 1999 season with the New Orleans Saints during which he had only 884 yards on the ground with 253 carries, Williams has done well. He boasted 1000 rushing yards in 2000 with 248 carries, and 1245 rushing yards with 313 carries for two years before he joined the Dolphins.

When he joined Miami in 2002, instead of playing a role in the backfield, he was asked to pretty much spearhead the Dolphins offensive explosion. Ricky accumulated 1853 rushing yards with an almost machine-like 383 carries; do you think they ran the ball that year? By the time the 2003 season rolled around, the hype around Ricky Williams was astonishing. Ricky was thrown into the spotlight by not only the local media, but also by the national media which acclaimed him as the next great running back in the NFL/ This only heightened an already escalating problem. The Dolphins continued to utilize Ricky in the 2003 season the same way they had the year before; he compiled an amazing 392 carries, but only 1372 rushing yards. Opposing teams seemed to figure out that Miami was going to run the ball, a lot.

Right before training camp started for the Dolphins, on July 25, 2004, Ricky Williams placed a phone call to the team to announce that he had planned to “retire” and not play the 2004 season. Ricky cited many reasons for his choice to leave the high-paying career of football. He said, “I just don’t want to be in this business anymore,” and added, “I was never strong enough to not play football, but I’m strong enough now.” Ricky also added that he was “finally free,” and he couldn’t remember being this happy. The Dolphins weren’t. Miami ended up finishing that season with a 4-12 year. The Dolphins’ savior had become their downfall. The story of Ricky Williams’ decision to leave football to pursue a career as a holistic healer made the news often during the 2004 season, and many twists and turns surfaced in that time, including Ricky failing a drug test due to marijuana use just prior to his decision to leave football.

Last season, Williams returned to the Dolphins to play football, and tried to work off some of the money that he owed them for the 2004 season he did not play. Ricky missed the first four games of the season, serving a suspension for his failed drug test prior to training camp the year before. He came back slowly, only achieving seven yards rushing during the first two games of his return. Ricky then finished the season with two games during which he gained more than 100 yards rushing. At this point, Nick Saban was onto something; not only did he have an established power runner in Ricky Williams, but he also had a finesse running back in Ronnie Brown. Enter the two-headed monster of power and finesse.

Now the power-half of the two-headed monster is gone. Williams failed another drug test last month and has just been handed a one-year suspension by the NFL as of last week. The real question isn’t “How will the Dolphins welcome him back next year or will they use him as trade bait?” The real question is how well Nick Saban can convince his team that Ricky Williams is insignificant to their success. While most of us know that Williams is one heck of a running back, I doubt his failure to play this season will seriously affect their chances in the AFC East. The Dolphins have improved themselves greatly in the off-season, and their competition in the division has either lost key players or has remained dormant in free-agent signings. The Patriots (God-bless) have lost Adam Vinatieri, Ted Washington, and, probably the biggest hit of them all, Willie McGinnest. Not to mention the fact that the Patriots seemed to ignore the last free-agent signing. Meanwhile, the Jets and the Bills do not look like they are going to provide much of a challenge.

So, it seems the Dolphins will survive this year with the loss of Ricky Williams. Unless something else happens that derails their train off the tracks, they seem to be the favorite to win the AFC East. What about Ricky, though? What will become of his career? Will he play for the Dolphins next year? What will happen to his legacy? Well, only time will tell. Only Ricky can decide his future. Either he can serve his one year suspension and come back and try to be a model NFL player again, or he can mix dry herbs into a burlap pouch and give them to natives in the Australian outback. Maybe he can get a gig with the Amsterdam Admirals in NFL Europe. Either way, the Dolphins are much better off this year than in 2004; Ricky Williams, not so much.

Bet the NFL Futures and Props at http://www.WagerWeb.com/Sportsbook/



WARREN